VIDEO TRANSCRIPT: Experts say another mild winter is coming to Central New York
Glynn: Autumn is here in full swing as the leaves continue to change around Central New York. With signs of winter on the way, I looked into how this winter will compare with last season’s, one of the mildest winters in Syracuse history.
Glynn: As the sun sets earlier and the nights grow cooler, winter will soon arrive. After one of the warmest winters Central New York has ever experienced, the stereotypes of snowy Syracuse may no longer apply.
Michael Murphy: “The official outlooks are calling for slightly above-average temperatures this winter and above-average precipitation too, once again.”
Glynn: Lead winter meteorologist at National Weather Service Binghamton Michael Murphy says the statistics show a repeat of last winter. But for the local tourism that revolves around winter activities, president and CEO of Visit Syracuse Danny Liedka says there is no fear.
Danny Liedka: “This year will be the third consecutive year there has been tremendous growth. So we haven’t any dips, fortunately.”
Glynn: Higher temperatures and increased rain don’t just affect the snow and winter months. Foliage, another Central New York staple could see major change as well.
Melissa Godek: “These patterns are impacting our fall as much as global climate change is impacting our fall. Because we’re expecting a warmer and wetter start to the fall, that’s actually not good for fall foliage, because it will take those leaves off the trees when they change.”
Glynn: Dr. Melissa Godek, a meteorology professor at SUNY Oneonta, says the intense snow that makes Central New York winters what they are will likely only fall towards the end of winter and this pattern will continue
Godek: “It probably will be quite unconventional, I think that’s going to be a standard thing now because what we have as a baseline of raised temperatures throughout the winter season, inherently changes something huge in Central New York, which is the timing of the lake effect snows.”
Glynn: More manufactured snow might be in store for local winter activities with the early reports of the approaching winter.
SYRACUSE, N.Y. (NCC News) — In years past, Syracuse has been called the snowiest city in America. But the snow that once made Central New York what it is commonly known for, is slowly waning. Last winter was one of the warmest winters in the region’s history. Early forecasts of the upcoming months are saying a winter like last season’s is on its way again.
“The official outlooks are calling for slightly above-average temperatures this winter and above average precipitation too, once again,” said Michael Murphy, the lead winter meteorologist at National Weather Service Binghamton.
Murphy and his team found that last season’s temperatures were about seven degrees above average. Though it may not seem drastic, even one degree warmer can impact the snowy scenes one may be used to in Central New York.
The City of Syracuse sits next to Onondaga Lake. The lake effect snow is one of the reasons Syracuse has always been hit as hard as it does with snow storms. This effect is changing as well.
“It probably will be quite unconventional, I think that’s going to be a standard thing now,” said Dr. Melissa Godek of SUNY Oneonta. “What we have as a baseline of raised temperatures throughout the winter season, inherently changes something huge in Central New York, which is the timing of the lake effect snows.”
According to Godek, the snow coming from the lake effect won’t reach its typical extremes until late winter, similar to last year. What used to begin as early as November, will take more time to develop and stay around for less. Godek says the mass amounts of snow will only last a month, while the rest of the winter may be scattered, smaller amounts. The snow melted quickly after it fell, and Godek says to expect that again.
Being known for snow in the region brings in skiers, snowmobilers and many people seeking outdoor winter activities according to Visit Syracuse. Outdoor winter opportunities are one way Visit Syracuse draws in tourism. But while these conditions of limited snow may become the new normal, the tourism industry isn’t concerned yet.
“This year will be the third consecutive year there has been tremendous growth,” said Danny Liedka, CEO and President of Visit Syracuse. “So we haven’t seen any dips, fortunately.”
Liedka said travelers from Philadelphia and New York City are making their way toward Central New York, which did not happen too often before the global pandemic of 2020. Godek thinks this makes sense, believing they are drawn to the quaint life of anywhere upstate in New York.
One of the draws of “quaint” Central New York is the foliage and the changing of the leaves into bright and colorful scenes. But this is being affected by new weather patterns too, not just the winter.
“These patterns are impacting our fall as much as global climate change is impacting our fall,” said Godek. “Because we’re expecting a warmer and wetter start to the fall, that’s actually not good for fall foliage because it will take those leaves off the trees when they change.”
The four seasons of Central New York may no longer be as they once were if these winter and fall conditions continue. Many local winter businesses had to use manufactured snow last season to survive the lack of snow, and it appears that may be in store once again.