Trump will likely cut U.S. aid to Ukraine: What that means for the war and the world

SYRACUSE, N.Y. (NCC News) – Many Ukrainians are uncertain about what President-elect Donald Trump’s second term will mean for the War in Ukraine. His administration is expected to pursue a very different policy than Biden’s – one that has the potential for devastating global implications if it allows President Vladimir Putin to succeed in his mission to take control of Ukraine.

The Biden administration has maintained that the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” rallying NATO allies to provide both economic and military assistance. Under Biden, the U.S. passed several large military aid packages, totaling over $100 billion. In contrast, both Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance have suggested they would cut U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Vance has said he doesn’t care about what happens in Ukraine, while Trump has repeatedly voiced skepticism about ongoing military support for Ukraine and lobbied against the latest aid package passed in April. Trump has also claimed he could end the war within a day with a phone call to Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky, which could have serious implications, according to Brian Taylor, a Syracuse University political science professor specializing in Russian politics. 

Taylor finds that Trump seems to envision a scenario where he calls both Putin and Zelensky and demands an immediate end to the war. This would force Ukraine to accept Russia’s territorial gains and abandon any aspirations of NATO membership and Russia to halt further aggression – terms currently unacceptable to both parties. Taylor believes that Trump would ultimately lose interest in Ukraine altogether once he realizes the situation is far more complex than he expects. 

Trump is likely to cut U.S. aid to Ukraine dramatically, if not remove it altogether, according to Taylor. Taylor warns that Ukraine’s future looks grim if its European allies fail to match that U.S. funding, increasing the likelihood of Putin’s success. Putin has made it clear that Russia’s ultimate goal is to gain full political control over Ukraine. He has repeatedly claimed that Ukrainians and Russians are one people and that Ukraine is an artificial state, insisting he will not stop the war—launched in 2014 after Russia’s annexation of Crimea—until Ukraine is fully absorbed into Russia. If Putin succeeds, it could have far-reaching global implications, effectively reversing the post-World War II international order. For decades, invasions aimed at seizing and annexing another country’s territory had all but disappeared from global politics.

“This would be a fundamental reversal of that principle against wars of territorial aggression and wars of imperial conquest,” said Taylor. “So it has implications not just for Ukraine and not just for Europe, but really the entire planet in terms of whether we’re going to go back to an Age of Conquest, one that we had hoped that we’d move past after World War II.” 

Not only are neighboring countries like Moldova at risk if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, but NATO members could also be in jeopardy, according to Taylor. 

“I do worry that if he gets what he wants in Ukraine, he’ll feel like he might be able to cause the NATO alliance to crack, which would be a major geopolitical victory,” said Taylor.

Taylor warns that Putin may test NATO’s Article 5 commitment to defend its members, especially given Trump’s suggestion that the U.S. should pull out of NATO and allow Putin to do as he pleases with countries not spending enough on defense. He says that while there are solid reasons Putin wouldn’t directly attack NATO—given the alliance’s strength, and the fact that three member countries possess nuclear weapons—he remains concerned that a victory in Ukraine could embolden Putin to act with greater impunity.

Many Ukrainians are terrified for what Trump’s presidency will mean for their home country. 

“I would say the best word to describe my feelings is concerned,” said Kateryna Kolesova, a Syracuse University master’s student who fled the war two years ago. 

Kolesova left her home in Rivne, a city in western Ukraine, and first moved to Germany before arriving in Mexico with the help of Uniting for Ukraine. From there, she made the long and dangerous journey across the border in Tijuana on foot to reunite with her parents, who had been living in Syracuse before the war.

Being Ukrainian means everything to Kolesova. She says that everything—from the traditions to the language—shapes who she is, and she wants to share the warmth, hospitality and friendliness of her culture with others. But she fears Trump will cut aid to Ukraine, a move, she says, would be devastating for her country.

“It’s so hard to fight that machine, that war machine alone. When the war started, Ukraine was able to withhold and defend itself, thanks to people. We had nothing,” said Kolesova. “But really, the situation was very, very, very risky for us, and very dangerous. Only thanks to the help from other countries. Thanks to the aid, humanitarian aid, military aid, we are still able to stand. Without that, our country would be destroyed.” 

Kolesova holds onto hope that Trump will recognize why it’s important to fight for Ukraine.

Taylor’s not so sure. But he says he does believe Ukrainians are resilient and will keep fighting even if Trump turns all the odds against them.

“I don’t necessarily think that Ukraine will simply give up,” said Taylor. “In fact, I’m quite sure they won’t.”